2013 Forecast

Here it comes: the new year. It means people start to make predictions about the future and stuff. They fill up the air with illusions and stories about the events that 'will' take place in their lives and surroundings. If it would be that simple.

The fact is, after reading The Zurich Axioms, book about investments, I currently understand people can't predict the future. We would always wonder, 'he's good at what he's saying, he studied', but the future is decided by a scramble of events, people included. So, where you find human beings, you may know unpredicted things happen.

People make decisions without much sense sometimes, and there are a whole lotta planet full of people, each person different from the other. It's not hard to think what it causes. Markets, wars, elections are all transformed by people. 

There are others who think it is, yes, possible to predict future. Nate Silver, the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail - but Some Don't celebrates the fact that investigation of a matter - from all sides - can bring up the solution, as I read in a book review this week. Nate gets better in predictions if the organizations he consults are liable and honest, because he knows all people fail!

Hence we know there are two ways of thinking related to forecasting. I'm sticking to the first one for the moment; it's easier not to predict right, mostly because I'm not in the business of antecipating events for a living. But who knows what the future holds?  

Awareness

                                           Friends find solace on each other.

The World AIDS Day was yesterday and I saw no awareness amidst the people I know, or the community I live in. It is kinda strange not to consider this day as an important reminder of prevention we all should indulge. I don't know whether people would keep their minds on spending - Black Friday/ Xmas - or just take it for granted.

Although there are parts of the world where HIV numbers are decreasing, there are parts where people are unaware of the problem. In UK, for example, a quarter of 90.000 people infected don't even know they have the virus. The UN recently released 2011 statistics which showed newly infected reaching 2.5 million. If we consider the UN program for AIDS, 'Getting To Zero', there is still a lot of ground ahead of everyone.

The campaign to get AIDS down to zero has 10 goals for 2015; many of them are quite difficult to deliver,  such as preventing all drug users from getting infected. It's extremely positive to have goals and follow them, but when you are speaking on behalf of other nations, it gets difficult to manage. What people need to know is that everyone can make the change, not leaving the burden to medical organizations around the world.

It could be as easy as using a condom or a new syringe. The condom promotion investment, for example,  in low and middle income countries is currently US$ 100 million, but it is needed more US$ 190 million to increase awareness till 2015. Investments are a bit low now than they are requested. So at least what people can do right is act aware - in fact that is the campaign idea by World AIDS Day organization in UK.

Hopefully in between this World Day and the next I can see people discussing and thinking more about this topic around me. If you are thinking on donating blood, one thing leads to the other, and then next time you see,  you are having the HIV test. It is as simple as that, and it can be part of everyone's lives too.

Multitasking Me

The other day at work I got in trouble while talking to a person and loading information into the computer. I thought I could multitask well, but I couldn't. Well, nobody can, according to specialists. At this exact moment, I'm opening another browser window to check a total different subject.

Tsc, tsc, we always want to do multiple things at once, in a way we wouldn't waste time, or better saying, we would save time. Indeed, it's quite logical thinking, but we forget our brain capacity. If we do an analogy with a computer, we remember the computer's processor can only do things in a sequence, not altogether. 

Actually, we can do things together, if we consider mechanical tasks, like sweeping the floor, changing the lightbulb, with talking, singing, for example, because the former tasks are rote tasks. No problem at all. The thing is when we consider doing highly demanding tasks; they take up most of our brain functionality. The brain goes through two stages normally: goal shifting and role activation. The first one is the decision of which activity should be focused, and the other is the rule changing when a new activity is started. Those are the processes our brains regularly follow.

It's a good idea, though, not to obliterate our inner programming. Multitasking used to be well considered in job interviews, and I even said I was a good multitasker in many occasions! It is at work where people attempt to multitask the most, and it is there where employees get more into trouble, like me. So, as a matter of fact, I will try not to forget this valuable lesson, not at least for tomorrow!

US Tough Electorate Decision

Although it's not much my business, US elections run next week, and all eyes turn to this country. As we all live connected, probably most of world's population, these elections matter indeed. Maybe there's only the ingenious curiosity of who's gonna win, but the future (or present) is set at this moment, and what comes next defines the next four years, for many people.

Both candidates are fit for the job, but their plans are quite different from each other. It seems to be an easy decision for the electorate, but it doesn't. Romney and Obama have been debating with many ups and downs, trying to convincing whoever is on their way. However, there are lots of undecided people, and it's not on US alone - in Brazil, France, and other places, voters feel great disbelief on politicians, and it's surmmounting.

Obama, according to the critics, turned down points from his own oath of office, only closing in on things for a new four-year-term. Romney changes his ideas from time to time; he has a doubtful foreign policy, inclined to hostility and combativeness with other countries. He would rather cut funds from public programs than the army budget. Again, it seems like an easy decision to pick the best candidate, but America is divided at the moment. 

There are flaws in both presidentials, so maybe is the reason for doubt. Obama failed in some issues, Romney is a new candidate with no coherent speech. People wouldn't like this election to be difficult to vote. I assume it's because Barack Obama and Mitt Romney don't offer nothing new. And at the end, during tough times, it makes a lot of difference. 

What Is Next For Assange

I don't really know what is the future of the founder of Wikileaks. Julian Assange now faces indefinite stay at the Equadorean embassy. He is in a catch-22 - cannot go to Sweden for court trials because of the rigid prosecution laws the country holds, and in case he leaves London, US could easily capture and take him to a even tougher US prison. They are gloomy predictions, but not difficult to imagine considering he defied the system and made transparency his ideal.  

We know Wikileaks is an organization that reveals documents, reports, all related to unethical behavior in governments and institutions. I don't see what is the problem with that. Wikileaks started out in 2007 oficially and brought important documents to light in all those years, such as the Guantanamo Bay files, US embassy cables and the Afghanistan war logs, amidst others.

The Equadorean embassy's asylum is one of the most difficult episodes of Julian Assange's life. He had better chosen that than being extradicted to Sweden, where he could endure tough judicial system, as Gottfrid Svartholm, Pirate Bay founder, has been having so far for hacking accusations. Besides that, Assange would be taken to a US prison without effort, which was already mentioned.

In the meantime he meets with Lady Gaga, films personal messages for support and finalises his next book about the future of internet. I believe he sowed the seed for a more open and realistic freedom of the press, which is something many are looking for, for example, Folha, a Brazilian newspaper, which has divulged a web link for leaks that leads up to investigation.

Although the future of Julian Assange is unclear, the Wikileaks site is working still, gathering lots of contributions regularly and requesting donations again via credit card. What he had done probably is difficult to undone, and that is a great keystone for transparency in politics in this new century. 

Rollerblading All The Way

I wish it comes the day people will go to work by rollerblades. Hehe, I mean, not everyone, of course. As I’ve seen other day on TV, people are really considering rollerblades as a way of transportation! I really don’t know how to skate on them, but it is indeed something worth thinking.

Rollerblades are human-powered transportation; physically challenging and would make you fit; they take you faster than walking, but, on the other hand, limited to short distances, perhaps, from 8 to 16 km. It is better you find paved walkways as well. Oh, I don’t think it’s too much of pessimism – we all have options and we consider setbacks for things, it’s like that for everyone, isn’t it?

Places such as universities campi are promoting diverse types of transportation. The University of Western Ontario states the campus is ‘extremely rollerblade friendly’. The University of Michigan says the same thing in its housing page. There’s no doubt that even the founder of rollerblades is doing the same.

Scott Olson, who improved inline skates, promotes his invention as a fitness product on his personal page. The rollerblades certainly make you fit, but the upside is that you can view transportation differently. I believe when the city I live in starts to create opportunities to sustainable transportation, I will try my balance on those!

Intersexual Friendship

Yesterday I read an article on the ISTOÉ magazine, which brings a story about intersexual friendship, or friendship between sexes, saying that men and women CAN be friends. Well, it's kinda hard to believe. The report has substantial proof though: from thesis by academics to testimonials by so-called 'friends'.

Nevertheless, I can really see a woman and a man relating to each other well; guys and girls in university, lunch break at work, after work happy hour, all good. What I notice by that is people getting along, I don't see them as guys and girls struggling to get along or suppressing feelings and stuff, of course. However, the magazine stated, the way I see things, it wasn't the norm until the II Great War, or more recently, in the 70s, when women reached the job market.

Since women have become independent, voted, started to work, or driven cars, then guys and girls started to relate more to each other, before that, girls would just meet brothers, priests and that's it. I haven't seen things that way before.

The thing is, apart from circles of friends at work, university, school and so on, a sole guy and girl, by themselves, as a guy x guy or girl x girl, it's hard to imagine. I have seen girls refusing to go out with me as friends, ok, the same way, I refused to go out with girls just as friends - it would just not work. You can go out once, twice, but after that it gets strange.

Among the theories on the magazine, one says there are four types of friendship between men and women. The most common, up to 90%, says guys and girls are just friends, no more, no less. That's what I see mostly, hence, it's what I consider friendship between sexes. The other 10% stray into different spheres: subjective, objective interest, and romance type of thing. For me, then, it's not friendship, why not step ahead and consider other things?