2013 Forecast

Here it comes: the new year. It means people start to make predictions about the future and stuff. They fill up the air with illusions and stories about the events that 'will' take place in their lives and surroundings. If it would be that simple.

The fact is, after reading The Zurich Axioms, book about investments, I currently understand people can't predict the future. We would always wonder, 'he's good at what he's saying, he studied', but the future is decided by a scramble of events, people included. So, where you find human beings, you may know unpredicted things happen.

People make decisions without much sense sometimes, and there are a whole lotta planet full of people, each person different from the other. It's not hard to think what it causes. Markets, wars, elections are all transformed by people. 

There are others who think it is, yes, possible to predict future. Nate Silver, the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail - but Some Don't celebrates the fact that investigation of a matter - from all sides - can bring up the solution, as I read in a book review this week. Nate gets better in predictions if the organizations he consults are liable and honest, because he knows all people fail!

Hence we know there are two ways of thinking related to forecasting. I'm sticking to the first one for the moment; it's easier not to predict right, mostly because I'm not in the business of antecipating events for a living. But who knows what the future holds?  

US Tough Electorate Decision

Although it's not much my business, US elections run next week, and all eyes turn to this country. As we all live connected, probably most of world's population, these elections matter indeed. Maybe there's only the ingenious curiosity of who's gonna win, but the future (or present) is set at this moment, and what comes next defines the next four years, for many people.

Both candidates are fit for the job, but their plans are quite different from each other. It seems to be an easy decision for the electorate, but it doesn't. Romney and Obama have been debating with many ups and downs, trying to convincing whoever is on their way. However, there are lots of undecided people, and it's not on US alone - in Brazil, France, and other places, voters feel great disbelief on politicians, and it's surmmounting.

Obama, according to the critics, turned down points from his own oath of office, only closing in on things for a new four-year-term. Romney changes his ideas from time to time; he has a doubtful foreign policy, inclined to hostility and combativeness with other countries. He would rather cut funds from public programs than the army budget. Again, it seems like an easy decision to pick the best candidate, but America is divided at the moment. 

There are flaws in both presidentials, so maybe is the reason for doubt. Obama failed in some issues, Romney is a new candidate with no coherent speech. People wouldn't like this election to be difficult to vote. I assume it's because Barack Obama and Mitt Romney don't offer nothing new. And at the end, during tough times, it makes a lot of difference. 

Don't worry be happy

                    Cartoon by Matador. Email: matadorcartoons@gmail.com


Steve Jobs quit, but not the way we think. His illness is the reason why he "leaves" Apple, but soon we gonna see him in October launching the new iPhone and in 2012, offering one more iPad.


His story is quite phenomenal; A garage-company turns to be a big rival of Microsoft.


Tim Cook, the "replacement" person, is someone markets are going to respect, but he doesn't quite properly fill Jobs' shoes.


What we gonna see next is Apple's stocks shaking a bit, but steady, as the second most valuable company in the world.

The winner is ...

The future world cup awarded by FIFA

In the bid for the 2022 World Cup, Japan promises high technology in order to be the favorite ones to host the event. People from all 208 FIFA member nations would be able to watch the World Cup in real time, in real stadiums, watching holograms of the real match from Japan. That's quite a promise.

The groundbreaking technology FIFA utilised in the 2010 event was merely 3D, an agreement with one of the official sponsors, Sony. "3D viewers around the world will feel as they are inside the stadiums in South Africa, watching the games in person," according to Howard Stringer, president of Sony Corporation. They forgot that not everyone owns 3D TVs. Looking at this aspect, Japan is already a winner.

What about using technology simply to achieve more 'sustainable' results, such as goal-line technology? It's a method invented by Dr Paul Hawkins that is successfully being used in tennis and cricket. Football supporters, players, journalists, agree the world cup organisers would be better off using the technology than any hologram or 3D effects.

Few examples are England's lost goal against Germany, and Carlos Tevez's goal in the match Mexico battled Argentina, and lost the game.

The future could reserve a holographic world cup, with goal-line technology. That's an improvement.

News Corp on the unpaid news

It sounds like a corporation that you might have seen in comic books, but News Corp is real, is large, and it’s growing its tentacles everywhere. It’s demanding, too.

The latest about News Corp is that they are going to charge for journalism on the Internet. It started some months ago as the media mogul and Fox network owner, Rupert Murdoch, announced plans to offer paid content to subscribed users. This is already experienced with the London Times and the Wall Street Journal – the latter owned by News Corp. Does it have to be this way?

The public wasn’t the intended user of the internet when it was invented by American computer scientist, Vinton Cerf, in 1973. It was mostly regarded for academics and students, back in that time. It is openly used now by anyone with an available computer and a proper connection. The internet is not owned by any organization in the world.

The internet is very much integrated to everybody’s lives across the world. In one way or another, people would acknowledge that the internet is here to stay. One good fact linked to all of this is that it’s free. It’s enough to pay for technology to connect, and pay the monthly data costs.

Corporations can’t see this from the consumer’s point of view. Journalism is usually a service, either on the internet, or on the TV, radio etc. Publishing news on the internet started as an arm of the news organization’s services, this online service has become a trend, which people usually get for free. Reverse that trend and it becomes complicated.

Not that the music industry hasn’t done this - it has. People are happy to pay for songs. Nevertheless, it is not a trend. There are numerous ways to get songs for free, and internet users will always find songs for free to download.

News Corp and Journalism Online, for example, another business that has similar plans to Rupert Murdoch, need to understand that not everyone is paying for their special news in the future. Someone needs to put this in the news!

Wayne Rooney in billboard for the World Cup 2010

This is my first post, and I would like to share my likings and 'dislikings' on all different topics in the media, with all that would stop to read some ingenious points by a random person in the crowd.

I’ll start by talking about the latest effort of Nike in the 2010World Cup. The spot "Write the Future" is entertaining, and well done.

Some time later I found out the director of the video is Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, a talented film director, who has won an Oscar and who improves the movie industry every time he makes something new.

Above all, however, Nike is the name behind the ad. The company has some eccentricities on TV and there's always a chance for them to reinvent themselves, proven with the video, which is why the company is a big player (yes, almost literally) in the industry.

Video is a successful tool in advertising that helps marketing significantly.

The new products that go with the TV ad, also have great creativity, like the crayons made by artist Diem Chau, commissioned by Wieden + Kennedy Portland agency, in US.

Nike is writing their future now with this excellent campaign, and unstoppable attitude.

I’ll be offering my thoughts and opinions whenever I get the chance on this blog.