Stocks Dilema

     picture: Daniel Haller

I've been trying to imagine why stock markets everywhere have risen, while people struggle to keep it together in the middle of the pandemic. Lately I've been listening that US have poured money on big companies, and this made an effect of keeping the value of US financial markets at a high note. Also, that it's not, at first place, an economic downturn. Part of society still have money, and they are saving, however, slowly they are spending again, and buying stock.

Apparently, that last statement makes sense, I reckon. I used to live in Australia during the last world economic recession, and we saw a abrupt stall of things there. The large amount of the population had their jobs, their savings, and only the most vulnerable would feel the shock. The thing is, nobody wanted to spend anything. Australia wasn't impacted by the recession much. If you had saved then, you could have moved on with your life.

I don't remember how the stock markets reacted over there, back in time. Nevertheless, at this time around, stocks all over are thriving, bit by bit, at least. In Brazil, the stock place has gained momentum and it is on the way up again. Experts believe that prices are being rearranged, and finding their best stock price. That it is the reason the Brazilian financial market, which is on 102.000 points, is not yet at their last level, at 130.000 points.

Some part of the media dedicated some time to try to explain this low level dilema. It sure did call my attention, I am no newbie to economic crisis, but I didn't make use of this moment to profit, unfortunately. If you are new to economic crisis, our time has passed away. The lowest the stock markets have got was the best chance to be successful on the stock exchange. When you are at it, however, you feel you could get stuck there indefinitely, but I was wrong, maybe lots of people too. The stocks rebounded and they are almost at their best again. Ok, see you at the next global crisis, see ya!

Here, a Hand Towel

As US passes the number of 100.000 cases of deaths related to Covid 19, some laboratories say they are on the brink of finding a vaccine. We all want this really much to happen, but it is not easy. What we have for sure is our faith to masks, sanitation and distancing. Some speculate around which medicine is best to take for the treatment. Hydroxychloroquine, interferon beta, remdesivir etc Not sure what is or what is not appropriate.

Since the beginning of the virus crisis, I would often pay attention to its spread rate, what would you do to avoid being contaminated, and the pathogen characteristics. I knew from the start it feels like a cold, and only this, for 80 per cent of the population. Twenty per cent would get ill, and five per cent in between would get really bad.

In my case, I didn't fall sick (considering I've been already exposed to the virus) and not the ones related to me. Through this scenario, I also became aware different regions in the world react differently to the virus. And there are the countries most visited by foreigners, or most cosmopolitan, and all of that. Lots of variables to think about.

What is easy for me to perceive is the longer you stay safe, the better for you. We all know testing is hard at the moment, even more for developing countries, because tests are expensive. Brazil (where I'm talking from) is testing way lower than other countries (three thousand per million,) even neighboring ones, like Uruguay, are testing more (ten thousand per million,) as of last week of May, 2020.

Staying positive is good for you, but better than that is to follow simple guidelines. Sneeze or cough on your bent arm (even wearing face masks,) wash your hands or use alcohol gel, and distance yourself enough from others. In case you feel you are not that healthy at the moment, consider self isolation, which is hard. Nevertheless being cautious is already quite good for everyone. Staying outdoors is less risky than indoors, according to this youtube video.

Oh, and there's the global economy... Oh, man

Name the movie

How I couldn't write about this? After such a long interval with no posts at all, and this blog almost forgotten, it was time to write again. I mean, express ideas, thoughts, well, anything that holds my interest. No better time than this.

If you were ever fascinated by terror or horror movies, what we are living it's just like a zombie movie, without the zombies themselves (I know some countries are starting to flat the curve, and I got late in here.) Nevertheless if you peek outside the window and look at the streets, you see almost no one. If you wander the streets, there are less vehicles than usual, people wearing masks. No buzz from the frenzy of the usual rat race.

Neighborhoods are silent, and the days go past slowly. Some people are distressed, anxious and others live a day at once. It's really like nothing else I ever experienced in life (maybe a bit the Housing Market 2008 crisis.) Sudden outbreaks of Corona virus, here and there. And people and cities would get enclosed in their surroundings; animals would take the streets for granted on the suburban areas.

Yeah, we have the huge number of lives being taken daily, and that is what the horror movies resemble, along with the whole scenario I described earlier. The pandemic condition this virus has brought to the planet, it's like the film itself. I don't know if we ever going to experience that again soon. However, i
t's so weird to imagine what it has developed, lots of people unemployed, businesses closing down, people scared to death (pun not intended.) I can see Rick Grimes walking by himself in the distance.

I don't know when it's gonna end; of course this is not going to last forever. I believe this is the farthest we would ever get of a zombie movie, or a zombie apocalypse. At least this surrealistic reality made me feel what it's like to be in a world where people could be decimated by the living dead, and the ones alive trying to survive. I know now life imitates art and the other way around too.

Wait... A War?

War. It's hard not to feel disturbed by the idea of war. Immediately, the word finds various meanings in the minds of random people; it involves violence in any of them, whatsoever. We are in the 21st century and, impressively, it's debated sort of frequently nowadays.

It's ten years now since US declared war over Iraq. It was an unsuccessful war, with no winners. Iraq is still feeling the sour effects till this day. No one would expect US would embark on another war. This time around with North Korea.

Kim Jong Un, self declared supreme leader of North Korea, claims US economic sanctions over a late North Korean nuclear test are a call for a war. He is kind of determined to influence leaders to attend his demands for oil, food etc. It's not that different from past leaders, such as the father, Kim Jong-Il and Kim Il-Sung, the first leader of the 'modern' North Korean peninsula.

No one would expect this type of behaviour from a person who has been in contact with the outside world. After studying in Berna, Switzerland, Kim Jong Un has returned to Pyongyang in 2000, and, to a surprising degree, in 2010 he has been awarded a four star general in the army, and vice president for the highest military comission in the country's Labour Party.

Although nerves are trembling in Asia (Japan) and in America - a little bit - experts consider he is showing his testoterone hormones to the world, in a way to be respected. It's not for real there's an impending war nearby; what is for real is the fact the whole world is getting to know more about this fellow, and his immature posture, while people in North Korea still suffers. 

It's Not Rock'N'Rio

In few weeks time I'm going to São Paulo for a big event: Lollapalooza. Well, it's a music event. Ok, I should have said I'm going to a MUSIC event, but, no problem. This is a big event for me. 

I always thought this would be the ultimate music event, since I started listening to rock music, probably, international rock music. I'm a fan of alternative music, mostly. It's rock, indeed, but, perhaps, it's more creative and I like it. 

Alternative is all you can find in Lollapalooza. The festival started out in 1991 as a farewell tour to Jane's Addiction - band of the festival's founder, Perry Farrel - and it is still on till this day, however, on and off over the years. The main thing about Lollapalooza is the fact it gathers different styles of music, which allures people with diverse music taste. This is my case.

The first Lolla in Brazil was last year, 2012, but I don't like Foo Fighters and Arctic Monkeys that much, also, didn't have the cash. So It's ok now. There's Black Keys, Planet Hemp, Nas, Killers among the main attractions. I hope it keep up to my expectations. 

I really like to watch bands live, and I've been to many concerts before. When there's nothing going on in your life, you know it's time to do something different and travel a bit, or go to a rock concert (pfff, if life would be that simple). If it's both combined then it's more than fine!

I should only take it easy because I did a knee surgery not long ago, and three days of fun call for attention to my health. Well, the doctor said to take pain reliever and apply some ice in case pain occurs. Thanks, Dr! See you all!

Survival

                            Man finds himself looking for survival. Illustration: trrent          

Yesterday I saw 'Life of Pi' and struck me the fact it is about survival. Not much about religion, perhaps, but the challenge of keeping yourself alive. Well, depends on your interpretation. Nevertheless, it's a tough subject. Actually, I'm a fan of the TV series 'Man Vs Wild' - which is in line with this concept. I sometimes find myself thinking what it would be to staying alive (no pun intended) in the wild.

This awareness probably is related to human genes; it's in our blood the past experiences from our descendants and stuff, and by this we develop hunches and attitudes for certain, and not rarely dangerous occasions. But the regular urban person seems not worried to survive in the wild, just in the city. The same case for people in rural areas, no longer pre-historical dangers scare them off. However, the interest in survival stories never fades. Hollywood has produced many films with survival themes.

'Cast away', 'Open Water', even 'Titanic' are examples of how films address our inner ancient fears of trying to staying alive. So I was glad to find on TV a regular show that would not only talk about survival, but exhibit it all. It is 'Man Vs Wild', aforementioned in the first paragraph. It is a shame, though, it has ended in 2012.

The show used to be aired on Discovery Channel, but I still tune in Brazil on a pay TV 24h news channel. It has lasted seven seasons, always presented by ex-Brittish Army Air officer, Bear Grylls. A really enticing entertainment show, it has never dropped the interest on the guy's adventures to escape from the wild and find civilization.  Maybe I needed to be a scout, or joined the army, to face the thrills which I feel so compelled by the show. Perhaps I like to learn what I see on the show in case I need.

Propably it is the case, I'm still not sure. I believe it's not a big deal to garner survivalist skills nowadays. How many of us are exposed to potential life threats every day? I'm not sure, and I'm not sure whether getting to know survival skills - on a TV basis - would help at all, but it would make a difference. Isn't that one of the reasons why I and others watch 'Man Vs Wild' at all?

2013 Forecast

Here it comes: the new year. It means people start to make predictions about the future and stuff. They fill up the air with illusions and stories about the events that 'will' take place in their lives and surroundings. If it would be that simple.

The fact is, after reading The Zurich Axioms, book about investments, I currently understand people can't predict the future. We would always wonder, 'he's good at what he's saying, he studied', but the future is decided by a scramble of events, people included. So, where you find human beings, you may know unpredicted things happen.

People make decisions without much sense sometimes, and there are a whole lotta planet full of people, each person different from the other. It's not hard to think what it causes. Markets, wars, elections are all transformed by people. 

There are others who think it is, yes, possible to predict future. Nate Silver, the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail - but Some Don't celebrates the fact that investigation of a matter - from all sides - can bring up the solution, as I read in a book review this week. Nate gets better in predictions if the organizations he consults are liable and honest, because he knows all people fail!

Hence we know there are two ways of thinking related to forecasting. I'm sticking to the first one for the moment; it's easier not to predict right, mostly because I'm not in the business of antecipating events for a living. But who knows what the future holds?